MANILA, PHILIPPINES — Damage from successive typhoons and reduced harvested area are expected to bring down production of milled rice in the Philippines, while imports will increase to make up the difference for the country’s staple food grain, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The FAS is projecting 12.69 million tonnes of milled rice production in marketing year 2024-25, down from 12.32 million tonnes in 2023-24, with consumption seen at 17.3 million tonnes, up 4% from 16.6 million tonnes the previous year.

Despite the reduction in milled rice production, the FAS forecasts an increase in rice supply for 2024-25 as the country implements a reduced tariff for rice imports from 35% to 15%. Imports are forecast to reach 4.6 million tonnes, up slightly from 4.49 million tonnes.

The implementation of the reduced tariff and the government’s efforts to make rice more accessible helped ease retail prices in the country beginning August to September 2024. Retail prices, however, remain generally elevated compared to the same period last year despite tariff cuts.

“Rice remains the staple food in the Philippines,” the FAS said. “No measurable shift in consumer diet from rice to bread is observed. Industry contacts, in addition, report that consumers are price insensitive, especially for good quality rice.”

The FAS is forecasting corn imports to reach 1.35 million tonnes for 2024-25 as fall armyworm continues to cause a decline in yields for local production amid demand for corn-based products and byproducts and feed requirements. The bulk of Philippine corn production, forecast at 8.3 million tonnes for 2024-25, is yellow corn for feed, with smaller production for white and sweet corn for human consumption.Wheat demand is seen at 7.1 million tonnes for 2024-25 and is largely driven by increased need for milling wheat due to economic growth, increased population, a rebound in tourism, moderating inflation and demand for feed wheat given favorable pricing versus corn. Wheat is supplied entirely through imports, which are projected to increase to 7.15 million tonnes in 2024-25 from 6.9 million the previous year.

Published Date: October 10, 2024