By Adrian H. Halili, Reporter

PHILIPPINE rice imports in 2025 will be driven by the expected decline in the production of palay (unmilled rice) this year, analysts said.

“We will have to import more next year to cover up the drop in production this year. Aside from this, demand for rice will increase because of the annual growth in the population,” Federation of Free Farmers national manager Raul Q. Montemayor said via Viber.

In its latest Grain: World Markets and Trade Report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said the Philippines is projected to import about 5.1 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025.

The USDA’s new forecast represents a 200,000 MT upgrade from the estimate of 4.9 MMT issued in October. The projection for next year is slightly higher compared to the 5 MMT forecast for 2024.

The Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) said palay production will likely decline 3.24% to a four year low of 19.41 MMT in 2024. This is equivalent to about 12.69 MMT of milled rice.

In 2023, actual palay output was 20.06 MMT. The new 2024 forecast also represents a downgrade from the 20.1 MMT estimate the DA issued in August.

The USDA said rice consumption in the Philippines is growing in line with population growth.

“The Philippines is importing record amounts due to a combination of population growth and reduced import tariffs. Thus far in 2024, the Philippines relied on Vietnam for more than 80% of imports,” the USDA said.

In June, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed Executive Order (EO) No. 62 which lowered the tariff on imported rice until 2028 to 15% from 35%. EO 62 was meant to tame rice prices and plug gaps in rice production.

The USDA is projecting domestic rice production of 12.3 MMT in milled rice equivalent for 2025. This slightly lower than the 12.33 MMT estimated for this year.

As of the third quarter, palay production declined by 12.4% to 3.33 MMT from 3.8 MMT the same period last year, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed.

Mr. Montemayor said that the rice imported this year would partially offset any anticipated drop in rice production.

“End-of-year stock levels will most probably be lower than normal, which means we will have to import more next year barring any significant increase in local production,” Mr. Montemayor added.

The DA said that it is aiming for a national rice inventory of 3.83 MMT by the end of the year. This is equivalent to about 100 days’ demand.

The national rice inventory rose 6.8% year on year to 1.66 MMT in September, according to the PSA.

Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said rice imports will likely remain at around 4 MMT next year, but production remains threatened by weather events.

“The challenges continue like erratic weather events like typhoons and flooding as well as low total factor productivity,” Mr. Dar said in a text message.

The Philippines experiences about 20 tropical cyclones each year. The government weather agency, known as PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration), has logged about 14 tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), with about two expected to enter PAR this month.

Earlier in the year the Philippines faced dry conditions during El Niño, leading to droughts and dry spells in various regions.

The Philippines is also set to experience La Niña, which heightens the likelihood of tropical cyclones, low-pressure areas, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone. La Niña also intensifies the Southwest Monsoon.

PAGASA estimated a 71% chance of La Niña occurring between September and November, likely persisting until the first quarter of 2025.

“The government must intensify its efforts to promote science and technology-based solutions and measures to boost productivity and increase income of farmers,” Mr. Dar said.

Published Date: November 10, 2024