Global rice production is projected to fall by 9 million metric tonnes in MY 2026/27, while rising import demand and climate-driven supply risks could reshape trade flows and prices

S&P Global Energy, in collaboration with the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF), will present an in-depth assessment of the global rice market at the upcoming BIRC 2026 conference, examining how a potentially severe and prolonged El Niño, rising input costs and geopolitical tensions are converging to create a more challenging environment for rice producers, traders and consumers.

The global rice market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as weather risks intensify across major producing regions. As of July 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 97 per cent probability that El Niño will persist into early 2027, alongside an 81 per cent probability that the event will become very strong during October-December 2026. For a crop as heavily dependent on stable weather and water availability as rice, the potential persistence and intensity of the phenomenon could have implications well beyond a single production cycle.

S&P Global projects global rice production to decline by 9 million metric tonnes in marketing year 2026/27 to 536.4 million metric tonnes. The anticipated decline comes as producers contend with weather uncertainty, higher fertilizer and fuel costs, rising transportation expenses and geopolitical tensions affecting production economics and trade decisions.

The impact of El Niño is expected to extend across virtually all major rice-growing regions, particularly if the weather pattern persists until at least April 2027. India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, Myanmar and the Philippines could face varying degrees of pressure during critical planting and growing periods, with water availability, acreage decisions and rising cultivation costs emerging as key variables for production.

The potential decline in output, however, does not necessarily translate into an immediate supply shock in international trade. Global rice exports are expected to remain relatively stable, supported by strong carry-in stocks from MY 2025/26. At the same time, global import demand is projected to rise by nearly 4 million metric tonnes to 59.7 million metric tonnes as importing countries seek to secure supplies against the possibility of weather-related harvest disruptions.

The resulting tightening in the global balance is expected to bring the stock-to-use ratio down to 36 per cent. While this level remains relatively comfortable by historical standards, the decline warrants closer monitoring as the market enters a potentially more volatile production and trade environment.

The emerging risk landscape is being shaped not only by weather. Higher fertilizer, fuel and transportation costs, compounded by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are increasing the cost of production and logistics across the rice value chain. For farmers, these pressures could influence planting decisions, input application and acreage allocation, while for traders and exporters they could alter sourcing economics and traditional trade flows.

The interaction between climate and production economics could prove particularly significant across Asia, where many of the world’s largest rice producers and consumers are located. Changing water availability and weather patterns could affect yields in some markets, while higher costs could encourage farmers to reconsider crop choices or reduce input use. These decisions could have implications for regional availability and international trade balances.

At BIRC 2026, S&P Global Energy will examine these developments on a country-by-country basis, assessing the outlook for production, consumption, trade and stocks across major rice markets. The session will also explore where supply risks are most concentrated, which countries could emerge as major importers and how established trade routes could change as governments and buyers respond to evolving supply conditions.

Price trends will form another key part of the discussion. Rice prices at major exporting origins have already begun reflecting concerns around weather risks and tighter market balances. The session will assess whether current price movements adequately reflect the potential impact of an intensifying El Niño and examine the outlook for rice prices over the next 52 weeks.

The BIRC 2026 discussion is expected to provide market participants with a framework for understanding how these forces could reshape global rice supply, demand, trade and pricing in MY 2026/27. As the rice market moves into a season marked by potentially severe weather disruptions and higher production costs, the central challenge for the industry will be balancing adequate supplies with increasingly volatile production and trade conditions. The coming year could therefore prove pivotal for global rice markets, with climate, costs and geopolitical developments likely to determine where supplies move, how prices respond and which markets face the greatest risks.

Published Date: August 18, 2026