By John Reidy

SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA — Milled rice production in South Korea is forecast to dip to 3.44 million tonnes in marketing year 2025-26 on reduced planted area, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Area planted to rice is projected by the FAS at 660,000 hectares in 2025-26, down 38,000 hectares from 2024-25. Area approaches half of the government’s reduction target of 80,000 hectares as it strives to address domestic oversupply.

Production in the new marketing year is seen declining from 3.58 million tonnes in 2024-25, a further drop from 3.7 million tonnes in 2023-24.

The FAS is projecting that rice consumption will decrease further due to demographic changes and alternative meals replacing the traditional rice-based cuisine among younger generations. According to Statistics Korea, the total population of South Korea will decline to 47.1 million people by 2050 and 36.2 million by 2072, accelerated by a low fertility rate.

Total consumption is projected to be 3.81 million tonnes in 2025-26, down from 3.88 million tonnes the previous year and an estimated 4.19 million tonnes in 2023-24. The national government has launched several initiatives aimed at reversing the trend of declining consumption that have achieved broad support from policymakers and attracted co-sponsors from private and public sectors, the FAS said.

On June 19, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) announced plans to establish a check-off funded nonprofit corporation, the Korea Rice Industry Association, whose purpose will be to develop the ROK rice industry by promoting rice consumption and sales while stabilizing supply and demand.

“Consumption of rice for processing continues to partially offset the reduction of total consumption, as the popularity of Korean processed rice products such as frozen kimbap and snacks maintains their growth in the global market,” the FAS said.

South Korea also has achieved success in diversifying its export markets as part of its efforts to overcome rice oversupplies, the FAS said. The country is expected to export 200,000 tonnes of rice in 2025-26, up from 180,000 in 2024-25 and 129,000 tonnes in 2023-24.

Increases were led by both commercial sales and rice aid donations via international organizations, including the UN World Food Programme. The FAS projects that rice exports will increase further in coming years in line with the government’s proactive support for rice exports.

The FAS sees ending stocks dropping to 977,000 tonnes in 2025-26, compared to 1.14 million tonnes in 2024-25 and 1.2 million in 2023-24.

Published Date: July 8, 2025