Experts say the El-Nino weather pattern has contributed to weaker-than-normal monsoon rainfall, affecting paddy sowing and raising concerns over production.

BENGALURU, India: Rice prices are climbing across southern India as weak monsoon rains fuel concerns over this season’s paddy harvest, squeezing household budgets and prompting calls for government action to keep supplies stable. 

Rice is a staple across South Indian households, and consumers are feeling the pinch.

In Karnataka, the average retail price has jumped about 14 per cent between May and July – around four times the national increase. 

In neighbouring Tamil Nadu, rice is selling at the highest average retail price in the region. 

HARVEST CONCERNS GROW 

Experts say the El-Nino weather pattern has contributed to weaker-than-normal monsoon rainfall, affecting paddy sowing and raising concerns over production. 

Rainfall across India’s southern peninsula was 26 per cent below its long-period average between Jun 1 and Jul 29. 

Andhra Pradesh recorded the region’s largest rainfall deficit, at nearly 40 per cent, while Kerala remained more than 20 per cent below average despite heavy rains and flooding in parts of the state.

If the dry conditions persist, analysts warn this season’s harvest could be affected. 

The impact is already being felt by consumers. 

Households in Bengaluru say rising prices are forcing them to cut back.

“The government should look at the welfare of poor people,” said one Bengaluru resident. 

“The rich will eat whether produce gets expensive or cheap. It is the poor that gets affected. We are not able to save any income.”

Some grocery retailers say certain rice varieties have become considerably more expensive, although retail prices vary depending on quality, brand and place of sale.

“(The price of rice) was close to 50 Indian rupee (US$0.50) per kilogram up until some time ago. Now, it is closer to 80 rupee,” said one grocery store owner. 

“It is happening because there is no rainfall. The increase is making it very difficult for the poor. We anticipate prices will go up to 100 rupee per kilogram.”

SUPPLY FEARS MOUNT 

Some analysts, however, argue that speculation rather than actual supply shortages is driving prices higher.

“This news came to be known widely, everybody is anticipating El-Nino and large rainfall deficit. Everybody is anticipating there will be shortage of agricultural production,” said climate policy analyst Soumya Dutta.

“So the hoarders have bought and are hoarding and are actually utilising this (situation). Otherwise, there is absolutely no reason why rice prices at this point of time should go up. 

“Because we have enough buffer stock of paddy in the FCI (Food Corporation of India) godowns and it should have been released. The government should have released it.’

The Karnataka government has denied any hoarding in the state, saying it is in talks with traders and farmers to formulate measures to curb rising prices. 

Other southern states have initiated measures, such as the distribution of selected grain varieties at subsidised rates, to ease the burden on consumers. 

With below-normal rainfall forecast for the rest of the monsoon season, experts are urging governments to act quickly by supporting farmers with free or subsidised seeds and fertilisers while ensuring adequate rice supplies to prevent further price increases.

Source: CNA/ca(oc)

Published Date: August 7, 2026