THE Philippines is forecast to produce about 12.125 million metric tons (MT) of rice this year due to increased funding from the government, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.

The USDA’s latest expected production for the marketing year is slightly higher than their previous forecast of 12 million MT, adding that El Niño is forecast to weaken in the April-May period.

“The [Philippine] government continues to prioritize the sector with funding, and farmers increase use of fertilizer and hybrid seeds,” said USDA in its latest Grain and Feed report.

It added that the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) Masagana Rice Program is set to receive funding worth P30.8 billion this year, roughly the same as in 2023, but double the P15.8 billion it received in 2022. The rice program aims to help 2.3 million farmers.

Citing data from the Fertilizer and Pesticides Authority, USDA said that fertilizer prices are more stable than in previous years, also affecting the rice production level.

Area to be harvested, meanwhile, is expected to remain the same at 4.8 million hectares.

In terms of consumption, the USDA forecasts rice consumption to increase to 19.6 million MT for marketing year 2024-2025 in line with population growth.

“Global wheat prices have stabilized, but there was no measurable shift from rice to bread over the past year as both staples experienced inflation,” it said.

The country’s rice imports were earlier projected to hit 4.0 million MT due to smaller harvests from local farms. This was higher from USDA’s previous estimate of 3.9 million MT.

This indicates that the Philippines will continue to be the top importer of rice globally, with Indonesia, China, and the European Union closely behind.

In 2023, the DA’s Bureau of Plant Industry showed that inbound shipments of the staple totaled 3.6 million MT for the whole year, down 8.96 percent from the 3.82 million MT logged in 2022.

From January to March 8, 2024, the country shipped in about 793,75 MT of rice. And according to the DA, the government should import a minimum of 330,000 MT of rice per month to fill in the average consumption of 37 MT per day.

This is equivalent to around 2.6 to 2.8 million MT of rice imports.

The department also assured the public that rice supply remains sufficient despite the upcoming lean season and risks of the El Niño weather pattern.

However, prices of the staple remain elevated due to the weather pattern and the global market situation.

Based on the price monitoring report of the DA as of March 22, prices of imported well-milled rice range between P51 to P54 per kilo (kg) while locally milled rice is sold from P49 to P58 per kg.

Published Date: March 24, 2024