• Record consumption and steady production keep the global rice balance sheet tight
• Trade flows expand as Asia anchors supply and Africa drives incremental demand

The global rice market is entering 2026 with stable production, record consumption and firm trade flows, as supply adjustments and competitive pricing continue to shape market direction. Global production for 2025/26 is projected at 541.2 million tons (mnt), close to last year’s record, with gains in Bangladesh, China and Japan offsetting declines in several exporting countries. India’s output remains stable at around 152 mnt, anchoring global supply.

Total supplies, including stocks, are expected at a record 732.4 mnt, while consumption is forecast to reach 542 mnt, driven by demand across Asia, Africa and the United States. Global rice trade in 2026 is projected at a record 62.8 mnt. Higher exports from China and Egypt are expected to offset lower shipments from Pakistan and the United States, with African demand continuing to support global buying. Export prices have firmed across major suppliers, with Indian rice remaining among the most competitive and Thai and Vietnamese prices strengthening on tighter supply.

The market remains supported by strong consumption, stable supply and expanding trade. Competition among exporters and demand trends in Africa and Asia will remain key drivers of price direction and trade flows through 2026.

Published Date: February 13, 2026