Vietnamese rice prices are expected to remain stable in February, according to market sources from Platts. The Philippines plans to import 300,000 metric tons of rice in February, a volume likely to be absorbed by incoming Vietnamese winter/spring supplies, though the imports are not entirely allocated to Vietnam.

This import window comes as the Philippines moves to more tightly manage rice imports in 2026 to support domestic farmers. The Philippines Department of Agriculture stated in a December 16 release that rice imports in 2026 are expected to fall below 4 million metric tons as domestic production is projected to reach a record high. The government had previously imposed a suspension on rice imports, extended until April 2026, but a limited import window will allow shipments to arrive by February to prevent imported rice from affecting domestic prices at the start of the summer harvest.

The Bureau of Plant Industry was expected to have started processing applications for around 500,000 metric tons before the end of 2026, according to the December 16 DA statement. An estimated 500,000 metric tons of rice imports were planned for January 2026, with about half to be sourced from Vietnam, exporters and traders said. However, the remaining volume may be supplied from Thailand, Myanmar, India, Cambodia, and Pakistan based on price competitiveness.

Market participants said February imports are expected to proceed without origin-based restrictions, unlike January, though the overall volume remains capped at around 300,000 metric tons. “While removing origin-based restrictions is a positive step, the overall import limit is still a constraint for the market,” a buyer from the Philippines said. “Buyers would have preferred the earlier policy with no volume caps, as the limit creates supply tightness and reduces flexibility in sourcing.” Another Philippines-based buyer added, “Buyers are being encouraged to diversify purchases. However, 300,000 mt remains a relatively small volume.”

Vietnam exported 3.2 million metric tons of rice to the Philippines in 2025, down 24% year over year, according to Vietnam Customs data. Vietnamese exporters said the February imports may improve market activity, but are unlikely to lift prices materially. “The February imports may make the market more active, but the volume is too small to drive prices higher,” a Ho Chi Minh City-based exporter said. “Buyers are still bidding at low levels, and some Vietnamese exporters are continuing to offer aggressively ahead of the winter/spring crop.”

Platts assessed Vietnam Fragrant 5% rice at $414 per metric ton FOB on January 19, unchanged day over day and down $16 month over month, while 5% white rice was assessed at $354 per metric ton FOB, unchanged day over day and down $6 month over month. Another Ho Chi Minh City-based exporter said any price impact from February imports would likely be capped by rising supply. “I dont expect a significant impact on prices, as 300,000 mt is small compared with current stocks and the winter/spring crop entering the market in late February and March,” the exporter said.

Vietnam’s rice production is expected to reach 26 million metric tons in marketing year 2025-26 (January-December), down 3% year over year, while exports are projected at 7.7 million metric tons, down 5% from the previous year, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

Published Date: January 27, 2026