“Although El Niño will affect output, the total harvest will still be relatively large and more supply in the market will tend to reduce prices,” FFF national manager Raul Montemayor told The STAR yesterday.

MANILA, Philippines — Palay and rice prices are expected to continue going down with the peak harvest season, according to farmers’ group Federation of Free Farmers (FFF).

“Although El Niño will affect output, the total harvest will still be relatively large and more supply in the market will tend to reduce prices,” FFF national manager Raul Montemayor told The STAR yesterday.

The dry harvest season has started this month and will last until April 2024, he added.

“If the effect of El Niño is significant and continues to persist, and if import prices continue to be high, the seasonal decline in prices might be short-lived,” he noted.

Meanwhile, the farmgate price of palay already dropped between P22 and P23 per kilo for fresh palay and between P26 and P28 per kilo for dry palay from the previous P28 to P30 per kilo and is expected to further go down to P25 per kilo, according to farmers’ group Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura (Sinag) executive director Jayson Cainglet.

After the dry season harvest in March and April, farmers will normally start planting again in May and June when the rains come, Montemayor said.

“These crops will be harvested in October and November but if the rains do not come on time, planting will be delayed, even in irrigated areas if dam levels are already low. This means that the harvest will be pushed back by a month so our lean months will be extended from July to September to possibly July to October,” he added.

Carryover stocks from the dry season harvest will not be enough, he noted.

“We will again experience tightness in supply starting September if imports do not come in,” he said.

Based on the Department of Agriculture (DA)’s monitoring, the retail price of local regular milled rice was pegged at P50 per kilo; local well-milled rice sold for as high as P55 per kilo; local premium rice, P61 per kilo; and local special rice, P66 per kilo.

Imported regular milled rice was sold for as high as P51 per kilo; imported well-milled rice, P58 per kilo; imported premium and special rice, P65 per kilo.

As of Feb. 29, total rice imports reached 728,255 metric tons, according to the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI).

Of the total imported rice, 46 percent or 390,997 MT came from Vietnam, followed by Thailand, 195,921 MT; Pakistan, 96,628 MT; Myanmar, 41,160 MT; Japan, 1,815 MT; Cambodia, 1,620 MT; India, 108 MT and Italy, five MT.

On March 1, a 36 percent spike in the retail price of rice was recorded compared to the same period last year, according to DA data. — Delon Porcalla

Published Date: March 10, 2024