Lower rice prices will benefit price-sensitive consumers in Africa and other regions.

By Channels Television

Nigeria is among the top rice-importing countries currently reaping the benefits of a global slum in prices of rice to multi-year lows.

Data obtained from a Reuters poll showed that the market slumped in April, a month after Delhi removed the last of its export curbs on the grain imposed in 2022, sending Indian parboiled rice export prices to a 22-month low. Prices in Thailand dropped to their lowest in more than three years, while in Vietnam, they sank to near five-year lows.

Following a slide of nearly one-third from their 2024 peaks, prices have found a floor, traders and industry executives said, but will hold there for the rest of 2025, limited by surpluses in all major exporting countries.

“Even after the recent significant correction, we don’t expect a price rebound. The supply glut will likely prevent prices from increasing,” said B.V. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association.

The association expects prices will fluctuate within a $10 range around $390 per ton for 5% broken rice for the rest of the year.

“Prices will remain around the current level unless the monsoon pulls a surprise and affects production,” said Himanshu Agrawal, executive director at Satyam Balajee, a leading rice exporter.

Reports say that while lower rice prices will benefit price-sensitive consumers in Africa and other regions, they are likely to further reduce the already meagre earnings of farmers across Asia, which produces nearly 90% of the world’s rice.

In 2023, Nigeria’s rice imports totalled $7.26 million, making it the 158th largest importer of rice globally. The main sources of these imports were India, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Benin, and the United States.

In 2023, Nigeria imported Rice primarily from India ($5.9M), United Arab Emirates ($743k), Thailand ($307k), Benin ($101k), and United States ($95.4k). The fastest growing origins for Rice imports in Nigeria between 2022 and 2023 were: India ($2.87M), United Arab Emirates ($291k), and Thailand ($119k).

Rice export prices from India, Thailand, and Vietnam are falling as India’s move to allow exports of all grades has intensified competition

India’s state-run weather office has forecast above-average monsoon rains for a second consecutive year in 2025, which will boost production.

Global rice output is expected to reach a record 543.6 million metric tons in 2024/25, up from 535.4 million tons the previous year, according to estimates from the Food and Agriculture Organization.

Total global supply, including stocks, is seen at 743 million tons, well above demand that is expected to rise to 539.4 million tons, the FAO estimates.

In India alone, rice stocks, including unmilled rice paddy, in government warehouses totalled 63.09 million tons on April 1, nearly five times the government’s target of 13.6 million tons.

With massive stocks and the expected rebound in production, buyers are in no rush to make purchases, while sellers are competing for market share, keeping global prices under pressure, said Agrawal.

The Rice Exporters Association expects shipments from India to rise by nearly 25% from a year earlier to a record 22.5 million metric tons this year.

India is set to flood global markets with record rice shipments this year after lifting the last of its export restrictions, unleashing stockpiles that have climbed to five times official target levels and pressuring global prices.

The jump is likely to propel India back to its dominant share of the global market, which stood at more than 40% before it curbed exports in 2022, surpassing the combined sales of the next four largest suppliers – Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the United States.

When India’s broken rice came back to the market in March, demand was affected by a weak rupee, trading around 87.2 against the dollar, which helped to drive prices down.

However, the rupee has since recovered to 84.55 against the dollar, and other exporting nations’ currencies have strengthened, too, which has prevented global rice prices from falling further, three grain dealers told Reuters.

Forecasts of higher supplies from India have unsettled rival suppliers.

In the first quarter of 2025, Thailand’s rice exports fell 30% to 2.1 million tons, as India offered the staple at lower prices, prompting buyers to switch, said Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

For 2025, Thailand’s exports are likely to drop 24% from a year ago to 7.5 million tons, while Vietnam’s are expected to fall 17%, also to 7.5 million tons, trade bodies in the two countries estimate.

Benefiting from the price slump are the top rice-importing countries – the Philippines, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and African countries such as Senegal, Nigeria, and Ghana.

In Ivory Coast, rice demand has grown with an influx of people from neighbouring countries, said Yacouba Dembele, director of the Agency for the Development of the Rice Sector.

“India’s export curbs were a bonanza for other Asian suppliers in the past two years. Now, the resumption in exports would make buyers happy with the moderation in prices,” said Rao at the Rice Exporters Association.

On 20 January 2022, the Federal Government banned the import of parboiled rice through the country’s seaports, according to an announcement by the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS).

However, as of January 2025, reports said the country received a shipment of brown rice as it seeks to alleviate climbing food costs that are squeezing consumers.

A consignment of 32,000 tons arrived in Lagos, according to logistics company DUCAT, which facilitated the shipment. The grain from Thailand was shipped in after issuance of a tariff moratorium on wheat, corn, rice and other food crops last year, DUCAT added.

Despite the duty waiver, purchases have mostly remained limited for fear of hurting local producers.

“Nigeria has been working hard to find solutions to broaden and strengthen its food supply accessibility,” DUCAT Chief Executive Officer Adrian Beciri said in a statement.

Published Date: May 8, 2025