Japan’s agriculture ministry says this year’s rice harvest will likely increase by about 660,000 tons from last year. The figure is up almost 30,000 tons from the previous forecast, indicating a good harvest.

The ministry announced the outlook for 2025 rice production as of October 25. The forecast shows the nationwide harvest of rice for consumers is projected to increase to 7.181 million tons, up 662,000 tons from last year.

The latest figure is nearly 30,000 tons more than the previous forecast published on September 25.

The ministry says farmers shifted from the production of rice for animal feed and others to that of rice for human consumption, increasing the acreage for growing such rice. The ministry also cited generally favorable weather conditions across many regions as another major contributing factor for the increased forecast.

By prefecture, the harvest in Fukushima is expected to see the largest increase compared to last year, at 62,700 tons. The harvest in Akita is forecast to increase 55,400 tons, followed by Niigata at 48,000 tons.

This year, the ministry estimated the yields using the sieve mesh sizes that are different from last year. The projected harvest volume based on the same mesh sizes as last year is 7.468 million tons, up 676,000 tons from last year.

The yield index, which is calculated compared to the average of the three years excluding the highest and lowest volumes over the past five years, stands at 102 nationwide.

While a significant increase in harvest volume is anticipated, retail prices of rice still remain high.

Published Date: November 20, 2025