Japan’s rice harvest for 2026 is estimated at 7.4 million tons, down about 1% from the previous year’s 7.47 million tons, the agriculture ministry said Tuesday.

The forecast is relatively high despite concerns about the impact of prolonged rain in September. With supply seen far surpassing demand, rice prices may decline further.

Production exceeded 7 million tons for the first time in four years in 2025.

The 2026 forecast was calculated based on the actual harvest and grain counts as of Sept. 25, when about 60% of the rice grown this year had been harvested.

The harvest survey has been delayed compared with a year earlier in some areas due to last month’s prolonged rain and lack of sunshine. The detailed impact of the weather conditions is likely to be reflected in the harvest figure as of Oct. 25, which will be released in mid-November.

A ministry official said the actual harvest could be lower once the impact of the prolonged rain is priced in, but added that supply is unlikely to fall short of demand.

Private-sector rice inventories have reached a record high due to the release of government-stockpiled rice since March last year and increased production.

Last month, the ministry decided to buy back 210,000 tons of rice from the market to replenish its stockpiles. However, prices have continued to fall, prompting producers and distributors to request additional buybacks.

The government’s rice stockpiles are currently far below the optimal level of around 1 million tons.

“We’ll work to restore the stockpile level without missing opportunities while carefully assessing the supply-demand balance,” agriculture minister Kazuo Yana told a news conference Tuesday.

Published Date: October 14, 2026