Thai rice prices set to plunge as India plans to unload 20m tonnes from stockpiles, undercutting global market rates and hurting Thai farmers, warns exporter.

The Thai Rice Exporters Association has warned that Thai rice prices are likely to plunge further next month after the Indian government moves to unload 20 million tonnes of rice from its stockpile.

The scenario was predicted by Chukiart Opaswong, honorary president of the association.

India’s stockpile release to hit global market

Chukiart said that if the Indian government releases 20 million tonnes of rice from its stockpile, Thailand’s competitiveness in the global rice market will be further weakened. This would result in falling rice prices domestically and deal a heavy blow to Thai farmers.

He explained that the Indian government plans to unload the stockpile to make space for the new harvest, when it will begin purchasing rice from its farmers.

According to reports, the rice will be allocated in three ways: part sold to ethanol producers, part distributed to the poor, and the rest sold to rice traders for export.

Lower Indian prices to undercut Thai rice

“We were shocked to hear the volume because India has set its selling price at just US$230 per tonne,” Chukiart said.

He noted that Indian rice exporters may spend an additional US$30 per tonne to upgrade quality to export standards, then sell it at between US$280 and US$300 per tonne—significantly lower than current Thai export prices.

At present, Thailand exports 5% polished rice at US$365–370 per tonne. At these prices, farmers receive only 5,000–6,000 baht per tonne of paddy, compared with 11,000–12,000 baht per tonne last year.

Global competition intensifies

Chukiart added that the global market has already been flooded with Indian rice since the government lifted its export ban on polished rice late last year. Thai rice prices fell immediately and are expected to decline further when the 20 million tonnes hit the market next month.

In the first six months of this year, India exported more than 11 million tonnes of rice, followed by Vietnam with 5.2 million tonnes and Thailand with 3.7 million tonnes.

This year’s export targets are: India at 23 million tonnes, Vietnam at 9 million tonnes, and Thailand at 7.5 million tonnes.

Published Date: August 25, 2025