Industry estimates show India’s rice production faces the biggest drop in two decades as below-normal rainfall threatens yields. Farmers fear weaker output could put pressure on domestic and international rice prices. Ravinder Bawa reports from Sonipat, one of India’s agricultural districts in the north. 

Farmer Ved Prakash has worked hard for months to bring this rice crop to the market. Just before a final bid is made for his produce, he is ensuring that the rice is dry and free of excess moisture. For farmers like Ved, growing rice this year has been a struggle. 

VED PRAKASH, Farmer “Our input cost has gone up three times because we had no rain. The farmers are badly hit this time. If we look at input cost, the farmer is facing a huge loss. Now we are living with just one hope that we get higher price for our produce.”

Ved is among farmers queuing up to auction their produce at prices offered by licensed buyers in the wholesale open markets. Industry experts warn rice production could fall by nearly 6.5 per cent from last year’s record 154 million tonnes due to poor rainfall, in what would be the sharpest fall since 2009, when an El Niño-induced drought reduced production. India is the world’s biggest rice exporter and a drop in output would impact global prices. 

KRISHNA RAO, President, Rice Exporters Association “And if there is a marginal decrease in five to 7% of India’s production, we’re still having a surplus. And our government stocks are also around 60 million tonnes. So I think so India will support the world in, in in terms of the volume. But the prices will be definitely firmer than what we have seen in the last couple of years from the market.”

Indian Exporters are expecting prices to go up by 10 percent. 

RAVINDER BAWA, Sonipat “For farmers, the impact will not be uniform as premium varieties are expected to fetch better prices in the open market which may reduce the volume sold to government procurement agencies.”

So, could there be a major market disruption? 

G. CHANDRASHEKHAR, Policy Commentator “You can’t be the market fundamental when there is supply tightness across the world. There will the prices will rise, which is an inevitable. I mean, this is how the market behaves. But India has enough availability to meet the shortfall in the global market.”

It comes at a time when rice prices are already rising in other major exporting countries, including Thailand and Vietnam. Ravinder Bawa, CGTN, Sonipat.

Published Date: September 25, 2026