In file photo: A worker at the National Food Authority (NFA) sweeps the rice grains at their warehouse in FTI, Taguig City.

THE country’s total rice inventory declined in March 2024 due to double-digit stock declines among households and in National Food Authority (NFA) warehouses, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The latest Rice and Corn Stocks Inventory report of the PSA showed the country’s total rice stocks reached 1.37 million metric tons (MMT) in March 2024, contracting by 3 percent from the 1.41 MMT posted in the same period of last year.

On a monthly basis, PSA data showed the volume of rice stocks inventory contracted 9.6 percent from the previous month’s inventory of 1.51 MMT.

“Of this month’s total rice stocks, 50.8 percent were from the households, 46.1 percent were from the commercial sector, and 3 percent were from the NFA depositories,” PSA said.

The data showed household rice stocks contracted 14.4 percent in March 2024 to 694,620 metric tons (MT) from 811,520 MT in March 2023.

On a month-on-month basis, PSA data showed household rice stocks increased 1.4 percent from the 685,200 MT recorded in February 2024.

Meanwhile, NFA rice stocks in its depositories contracted 59.9 percent to 41,290 MT in March 2024 from 103,070 MT in March 2023.

The data also showed that on a monthly basis NFA rice stocks declined 12 percent from the 46,890 MT posted in February 2024.

However, commercial stocks increased by 27.5 percent to 630,290 MT in March 2024 from the 494,250 MT posted in March 2023.

Nonetheless, PSA data showed rice stocks in the commercial sector contracted 19.1 percent from the 778,890 MT posted in February 2024.
Corn stocks higher

Meanwhile, as of March 2024, PSA reported that the total corn stocks inventory of the country reached 546,890 MT.

This indicated an annual increase of 55.4 percent from the 352,040 MT in the same period of 2023.

Corn stocks exhibited a month-on-month increase of 11.2 percent relative to its previous month’s inventory level of 491,770 MT.

“About 90.2 percent of this month’s total corn stocks inventory were from the commercial sector, while the remaining 9.8 percent were from the households,” PSA said.

Rice imports, prices

In an economic brief, Metrobank’s Research and Business Analytics Department noted the expectations of the PSA that rice inflation will continue to increase until base effects dissipate by August 2024.

Mdetrobank also noted the expectation of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) that the Philippines could purchase 4 MMT of rice as its “worst-case scenario” for rice supply in the country.       

In its latest monthly report on global grains trade, the USDA raised its projection for Philippine rice imports for 2024 to 4.1 MMT from the previous 3.9 MMT. (See: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2024/03/11/phl-seen-importing-4-1-mmt-of-rice-this-year/).

“Metrobank Research retains its yearend average inflation forecast at 4.3 percent [with a downward bias], as there continues to be a strong upward inflation pressure for the year due to rising rice prices, the effects of El Niño, and emerging geopolitical risks,” Metrobank said.

In March 2024, rice prices again jumped to a level last seen when the country had to grapple with supply issues caused by export bans imposed by rice-producing nations, according to the latest data released by the PSA.

In March 2024, rice inflation accelerated to 24.4 percent, the highest since the 24.6 percent posted in February 2009. The highest rice prices recorded was 36.4 percent in July 2008.

Data showed rice prices have been increasing in the double digits since September 2023, when rice prices increased 17.9 percent and started the year with a rice inflation of 22.6 percent.

Rice prices have been rising since January 2022 at 1 percent from the 0.1 deflation in December 2021 and 0.3 percent increase in January 2021. (See: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2024/04/06/rice-prices-surging-as-inflation-hits-3-7/).

Published Date: April 8, 2024