Ada Pelonia

GLOBAL rice supply glut, driven by India’s bumper crop and bulging stockpile, will keep international prices of the staple grain low into 2026, according to a study.

A study by International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) Senior Scientist Alisher Mirzabaev and The Rice Trader CEO Jeremy Zwinger said India’s government-held rice stocks reached 37.9 million metric tons (MMT) by August, owing to record harvests and minimum support price (MSP) procurement.

“With stocks at record highs and a new bumper harvest coming, potentially exceeding domestic utilization by 30 MMT, the oversupply situation in India will have massive global effects on the rice industry.”

Last March, India lifted the last rice export ban following a series of export restrictions from 2022 to 2023. This resulted in a surge of Indian rice onto world markets, with projected exports of around 23.5 MMT in 2025, according to the study.

India alone shipped over 14.7 MMT until the end of August 2025, which dwarfed Thailand’s 4.7 MMT and Vietnam’s 6 MMT in the same period, thus “dramatically” softened global prices.

With India returning as a “leading price-setter,” the study noted that global rice prices hit multi-year lows in 2025.

“Importing countries, especially in Africa and Asia, benefited from cheaper rice, easing food import bills,” the study said.

“But rival exporters saw their competitive position erode. The price drop has squeezed farmer margins in many Asian countries.”

The study noted that high-level stocks, strained warehousing capacities, and incoming new harvest in India will put further downward pressure on global rice prices.

“Globally, rice supplies are abundant, and prices are expected to stay low into 2026, barring a major shock,” the study said.

“The world rice stock-to-use ratio now exceeds 34 percent, one of the highest levels in modern times. Today’s level signifies extreme oversupply.”

It added that with world production at record highs (2024/25 output around 541 MMT) and carry-out stocks swelling, “the market has a large cushion.”

Net importers like the Philippines and Indonesia have also scaled back purchases to protect their domestic producers, and after having built reserves during earlier periods.

“This weak demand further dampens any short-term price rally,” the study said.

Image credits: BCV FARMS

Published Date: September 5, 2025