• Tighter availability, improved demand support export price hikes across regions
  
• Lower import demand from Bangladesh, West Africa to weigh on global trade
  

Global rice export quotations strengthened m-o-m across all major exporting origins during November. Rising prices reflected tightening exportable supplies and improved buying activity in selected markets.

Indian rice quotations registered a comparatively modest increase of $5/tonne (t) m-o-m to $389/t, retaining their competitive position among major exporters. Meanwhile, US rice quotations recorded the sharpest increase, rising $41/t to $680/t amid tightening supplies and continued foreign demand. Uruguay prices increased $19/t to $610/t, while Thai quotations rose $31/t to $497/t as sales picked up. Vietnamese rice prices climbed $24/t to $439/t, supported by tighter exportable supplies. Pakistani quotations increased $15/t to $411/t, reflecting strong sales of the new crop.

Global rice trade projected to decline in 2026-27

Global rice trade is expected to decline in 2026-27, according to projections from the US Department of Agriculture, with lower export projections for India and Thailand and reduced import demand across several countries. India’s rice exports are forecast to fall by 1 million tonnes (mnt) to 23 mnt due to lower shipments of broken and white rice, while Thailand’s exports are projected to decline by 0.2 mnt to 7.3 mnt.

Among importing countries, Bangladesh’s purchases are expected to decrease by 0.4 t to 1.1 mnt due to ample domestic supplies. Senegal’s imports are projected to fall by 0.2 mnt to 1.2 mnt amid higher broken rice prices, while Cameroon and Ivory Coast are expected to reduce imports by 100,000 t each to 500,000 t and 1.6 mnt, respectively, reflecting sluggish buying and lower consumption.

Global trade, production, stocks

Global rice trade estimates for 2025-26 have been revised downward due to slower export shipments and weaker import demand. India’s exports were reduced by 0.5 mnt to 22.5 mnt, while Thailand’s shipments were lowered by 0.2 mnt to 6.8 mnt amid higher prices and tighter exportable supplies.

On the import side, Bangladesh’s purchases were cut by 0.2 t to 0.8 t, while Cameroon and China are set to see reductions of 0.2 mnt each to 0.45 mnt and 3.8 mnt, respectively. Ivory Coast and Senegal’s imports are also revised lower due to weaker demand. Meanwhile, global rice production estimates for both 2025-26 and 2026-27 remain largely unchanged.

However, lower consumption is expected to support higher ending stocks in both years, although 2026-27 inventories are projected to remain below the previous year’s record level. Despite higher stocks, reduced export projections from major suppliers have weighed on global trade estimates.

Outlook

Global rice export prices are likely to remain supported by tightening exportable supplies and continued demand for competitively priced origins. However, higher quotations could restrict import demand among price-sensitive buyers, particularly in Bangladesh and West Africa. India’s relatively lower FOB quotations compared with other major exporters could support its competitiveness, although lower export projections indicate that shipment volumes may remain under pressure.

Published Date: November 13, 2026