FranceAgriMer’s rice market note, INFO RIZ N° 477 dated 30 October 2026, reports that the World Bank expects international rice prices to keep climbing in 2026 and 2027, driven by unfavorable weather conditions linked to El Niño. According to the note, global rice output could fall 2 percent in the 2026/27 campaign, which would be the first decline in ten years.

The report indicates that El Niño-related disruptions have already affected sowing and harvests in several Asian producing regions, where the main exporting countries are concentrated. Drought and high temperatures could also weigh on yields and limit market availability.

The World Bank projects the Thai 5 percent reference price to average 448 dollars per tonne in 2026, up from 408 dollars per tonne in 2025, a rise of 9.8 percent. For 2027, it foresees a further gain of 11.6 percent to 500 dollars per tonne, followed by a 6.4 percent decline to 468 dollars per tonne in 2028. The bank raised its 2027 forecasts by 21 percent compared with those published in April 2026, reflecting heightened concern about global supply.

In the third quarter of 2026, rice prices had already risen 6 percent from the previous quarter amid tightening supply prospects. These projections assume that major exporters will not impose restrictions to protect domestic availability; such measures could intensify market tensions and amplify price increases, as during the 2023-2024 El Niño episode. The phenomenon, whose exceptional intensity could last into early 2027, remains an additional risk factor for production and international trade, the note says, citing Rice News Today.

EU Trade Flows

For the 2026/2027 campaign, cumulative imports into EU member states as of 27 October 2026 totaled 197,490 tonnes in milled-equivalent terms excluding broken rice, compared with 218,374 tonnes at the same point a year earlier, a decline of 9 percent, according to Commission DG Agri data from the management committee of 29 October 2026. France recorded 43,850 tonnes, Italy 29,605 tonnes, the Netherlands 27,116 tonnes, Spain 25 tonnes and Germany 15,458 tonnes, among other member states.

European and World Quotations

In European paddy quotations for 27 October 2026, Italian Balilla stood at 384.00 euros per tonne and Thaïbonnet at 375.00 euros per tonne, while Bulgarian Japonica was quoted at 480.00 euros per tonne. For milled rice, Italian Japonica reached 1,214.90 euros per tonne on 27 October, up from 1,180.16 euros a week earlier.

On world markets, Thai 5 percent rice was quoted at 476 dollars per tonne on 28 October 2026, up from 457 dollars on 7 October, while Thai 25 percent rose to 448 dollars from 427 dollars over the same period. Indian 5 percent rice moved to 429 dollars per tonne on 28 October from 415 dollars on 7 October, and Vietnamese 5 percent reached 408 dollars from 398 dollars. US long-grain 4 percent was quoted at 917 dollars per tonne on 28 October, compared with 905 dollars on 7 October. In freight-related quotations, Indian Cargo rice was at 1,110 dollars per tonne on 28 October, down from 1,100 dollars on 7 October, while Pakistani Basmati Cargo fell to 1,050 dollars from 1,170 dollars over the same period.

Published Date: November 4, 2026