Ada Pelonia

Paddy rice production could fall by double digits in the third quarter, despite a slight uptick in yield due to the contraction in harvest area, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The country’s palay production from July to September could tumble 15 percent to 3.19 million metric tons (MMT) from 3.75 MMT in the same period last year. The latest forecast is also 2.2 percent lower than the agency’s initial estimate of 3.26 MMT.

Despite the expected increase in yield per hectare to 4.13 metric tons (MT) from last year’s 4.09 MT, the PSA said the contraction in harvest area could pull down production in the third quarter—considered the lean season for rice in the Philippines as strong typhoons usually strike major production areas during this period.

Rice harvest area could shrink by 15.8 percent to 771,790 hectares, from the 916,770 hectares recorded in the previous year.

As of August 1, the PSA noted that about 113,790 hectares or 14.7 percent of the 771,790 hectares have been harvested, which yielded 455,250 MT

Of the total area of 1.55 million hectares of standing palay as of August 1, the agency said 60.1 percent were at the vegetative stage, 26.1 percent were at the reproductive stage, and 13.8 percent were at the maturing stage.

“Of the farmer’s planting intentions for July to September 2026 at 1.58 million hectares perceived area, 892.32 thousand hectares or 56.4 percent have been actually planted.”

In the same report, the PSA said corn production in the third quarter could slide by 14.4 percent to 2.08 MMT, from last year’s 2.43 MMT.

The updated outlook was also lower by 1.5 percent than the recorded output of 2.11 MMT as of July 1.

The PSA expects the drop in harvest area and per-hectare yield to cut corn output during the period.

The harvest area for corn could fall by 12.8 percent to 688,030 hectares from the 789,240 hectares in the same period last year.

The agency also said yield per hectare of corn could slide by 1.6 percent to 3.02 MT, from the previous year’s 3.07 MT.

As of August 1, some 129,950 hectares or 18.9 percent of the 688,030 hectares have been harvested. This translated to 366,790 MT of corn output.

Of the total 798,370 hectares of standing corn as of August 1, the PSA said 39.2 percent were at the reproductive stage, 31.2 percent were at the maturing stage, and 29.6 percent were at the vegetative stage

“As for the farmer’s planting intentions for July to September 2026, 240.28 thousand hectares or 38.0 percent of the 632.42 thousand hectares perceived area have been actually planted.”

Published Date: September 17, 2026