Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) released average rice prices from approximately 1,000 supermarkets nationwide for the week of August 24–30. The average price stood at ¥3,112 (approximately $20) per 5 kilograms, down ¥44 from the previous week, marking a third consecutive weekly decline. Prices have now retreated roughly ¥1,300 from the peak reached around the New Year holiday period. The primary driver is clearance selling by distributors holding large inventories of 2025 crop rice ahead of the full distribution of new-crop rice. By category, branded rice fell ¥46 to ¥3,129, while blended rice and private brand products dropped ¥38 to ¥3,023 (approximately $19). Private-sector inventories are projected to reach as much as 2.83 million tons by end-June 2027, more than 1.4 times the appropriate level, suggesting further price declines are likely.

Average rice prices at supermarkets across Japan fell for a third consecutive week to ¥3,112 per 5 kilograms. According to a survey released by Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) on the 4th, the average price of rice sold at approximately 1,000 stores nationwide during the week of August 24–30 was down ¥44 from the previous week. Prices have now retreated to a level roughly ¥1,300 below the peak reached around the New Year holiday period.

The price decline is driven by private distributors holding large inventories of 2025 crop rice, who are rushing to sell at discounted prices ahead of the full-scale distribution of new-crop rice. A MAFF official noted, “Before new-crop rice enters full distribution, there is a continuing trend of discounting and clearance selling of 2025 crop rice, which will soon become old-crop rice.”

By category, branded rice such as Koshihikari fell ¥46 from the previous week to ¥3,129, marking a third consecutive weekly decline. Blended rice and retail private brand (PB) products dropped ¥38 to ¥3,023, falling for a second straight week.

At supermarket storefronts, 2026 crop new rice has begun appearing at prices lower than 2025 crop rice, and the downward trend in retail prices is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

Private Inventories Swell to Over 1.4 Times Appropriate Levels

MAFF has projected that private-sector rice inventories will reach 2.46 million to 2.83 million tons as of end-June 2027. This would far exceed the appropriate level of 1.8 million to 2.0 million tons and could reach the largest scale on record. Expectations of a bumper new-crop harvest are accelerating the inventory buildup.

With the rice surplus becoming increasingly evident, downward price pressure remains strong, and market participants are focused on the Japanese government’s reserve rice buyback program.

Note: MAFF surveyed selling prices at approximately 1,000 stores nationwide for August 24–30.

Supply-Demand Easing Could Accelerate Price Declines

If private inventories continue to far exceed appropriate levels, the sense of oversupply will intensify as new-crop rice enters the market, potentially driving prices down further. On the other hand, if the government proceeds with reserve rice buybacks, that would serve as a supply-demand tightening factor.

While lower prices ease the burden on consumers, there are concerns about pressure on producer profitability. The trajectory of rice prices will need to be assessed from both the government’s inventory management policies and the actual harvest volume of new-crop rice.

Published Date: September 4, 2026