Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) released its latest supply-demand outlook on September 2, projecting that private inventories of table rice will reach as much as 2.83 million tons by the end of June 2027, even after excluding the government’s buyback of reserve rice. The upward revision stems from an improved production forecast of 7.35 million to 7.54 million tons for the 2026 crop year, driven by expectations of an above-average harvest. This would far exceed the previous record of 2.43 million tons set at the end of June 2026 and could exert further downward pressure on rice prices. MAFF presented the outlook at a rice policy meeting, where it also outlined its plan to buy back reserve rice released into the market.

Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) released its latest supply-demand outlook on September 2, projecting that private inventories of table rice will reach as much as 2.83 million tons by the end of June 2027, even after excluding the government’s buyback of reserve rice. With the 2026 crop year’s harvest expected to exceed the average, the production forecast has been revised upward, and inventories are now projected to far surpass appropriate levels. The figure would significantly exceed the previous record of 2.43 million tons set at the end of June 2026 and could exert further downward pressure on rice prices.

The latest outlook reflects crop condition estimates for the new rice harvest as of August 15. The yield forecast for the 2026 crop year, released on August 31, projects output to be “somewhat above average” in 24 prefectures, prompting a recalculation of production estimates.

As a result, table rice production for the 2026 crop year is now projected at 7.35 million to 7.54 million tons on a brown rice basis. This represents an upward revision of up to 220,000 tons from the figures released at the end of last month. The bumper harvest outlook has pushed inventory projections higher.

MAFF presented these estimates at a rice policy meeting held the same day. At the meeting, the ministry also outlined its policy for buying back the reserve rice that the government had released into the market.

The latest inventory outlook marks an important turning point for the rice market. Private inventories of 2.43 million tons at the end of June 2026 were already at a record high, but with the bumper harvest outlook for the new crop, the oversupply situation is expected to persist and worsen by the end of June 2027.

Rice prices have remained elevated in recent years amid supply tightness, but the expected buildup of inventories could serve as a factor pushing down consumer prices, while potentially deteriorating the earnings environment for producers. MAFF is poised to advance policy measures, including the buyback of reserve rice, to adjust the supply-demand balance.

Published Date: September 3, 2026