USDA projects the smallest U.S. rice crop since 1987 as acreage continues to decline.

Tony St. James

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD News) — U.S. rice production is projected near a 40-year low, tightening supplies and lifting prices without restoring profitability for many growers. Mississippi State University Extension economist Will Maples says high costs continue to outweigh stronger market values.

USDA projects the 2026 crop at 153.3 million hundredweight, the smallest since 1987 and nearly 13 percent below its June estimate. Long-grain production is forecast at 104.1 million hundredweight, the lowest since 1993.

Planted acreage is estimated at 2.02 million acres, the smallest since 1972. Arkansas acreage would fall to its lowest since 1977, Mississippi to its lowest since 1961, and Texas to its lowest level on record.

Tighter supplies pushed the projected long-grain farm price to $13.50 per hundredweight, up from $10.40 last year. Ending stocks are expected to fall 52 percent to 17.7 million hundredweight.

Mississippi Delta producers could still lose about $331 per acre, marking a sixth straight year of negative returns. Estimated costs reached $1,411 per acre as fertilizer and fuel expenses climbed.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher rice prices may not offset reduced yields, shrinking acreage, and sharply elevated production costs.

Published Date: July 28, 2026