By Giselle P. Jordan

THE country may face a shortage in domestic rice supply this year due to reduced production and external geopolitical risks, the Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) said over the weekend.

The group — whose 200,000 members include small landholders, tenants, agricultural laborers, settlers, and fishermen — is projecting a 6-percent drop in palay output in the first semester due to reduced planting following low palay (unhusked rice) prices in 2025.

Last year, palay production totaled 19.68 million metric tons (MT), which the FFF said amounted to 12.4 million MT of rice. Adding 2024 carryover stocks resulted in a rice supply of 14.6 million MT.

While lower than last year‘s consumption of 15.76 million MT, it is offset by imports, resulting in an end-of-2025/beginning-of-2026 stock inventory of 2.34 million MT, said FFF.

Also last year, palay prices dropped to as low as P8 per kilogram, or below the production cost in some areas, prompting the government to impose a ban on rice imports for four months.

For the second half of the year, the FFF forecast five scenarios with production declines ranging from 10 to 50 percent of the 10.6 million MT palay harvest in the same period last year.

Baseline projections of a 10-percent drop in second-semester palay production show that total supply including carryover stocks would fall to 13.7 million MT.

On the other hand, in a worst-case scenario of a 50-percent drop in production, supply could fall to just over 11 million MT from high input costs and a severe El Niño, the FFF said, adding that it could also lead to a rice supply shortfall of 2.2 million MT.

But domestic demand is expected to rise, the FFF noted. Rice consumption as food is seen to increase by 3 percent annually, reaching 14.5 million MT.

Total utilization for 2026, including seeds, industrial use, and waste, is forecast between 15.6 and 16 million MT.

This means imports are needed to maintain the 60-day buffer stock for 2027. If second-semester production drops by 10 percent, the country must import 4.6 million MT of rice, which is 30 percent higher than 2025 import volumes.

If second-semester production drops by 50 percent, imports could increase to almost 7 million MT, the FFF said, pointing out that relying on imports to fill supply gaps is “extremely risky” at this time.

For instance, the FFF said, an import requirement of 7 million MT would compel Vietnam to allot nearly 90 percent of its annual export capacity to the Philippines, which Vietnam might not be inclined to allow after it was covered by the import ban last year.

The Iran war will continue to threaten global rice supply as shipping costs rise, the FFF noted, as it called for immediate fertilizer support for wet season plantings, as well as other interventions to mitigate the impact of high fuel and fertilizer costs, coupled with water scarcity.

Published Date: April 27, 2026