By John Reidy

BANGKOK, THAILAND — Milled rice production in Thailand is forecast at 20.3 million tonnes for marketing year 2026-27, down 2% from 20.7 million tonnes in 2025-26, due to a contraction in off-season rice acreage, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The off-season rice area will shrink from 2.1 million hectares harvested in 2025-26 to approximately 1.9 million hectares in 2026-27, reflecting water availability concerns in 2026, the FAS said in its annual report published March 31.

“While above-average reservoir storage built up during the strong 2025 wet season provides a buffer, the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) flags a return to drier-than-normal conditions associated with an emerging El Niño pattern during mid-2026,” the FAS said.

The Thai government is maintaining and expanding a package of measures to stabilize domestic rice markets and support farmer incomes in 2025-26, which will continue to shape planting and marketing decisions into 2026-27.

The FAS forecasts 2026-27 domestic rice consumption to remain stable at 12.4 million tonnes and unchanged the previous year.

“Steady demand from the foodservice and hospitality sectors, supported by continued growth in international tourist arrivals, will offset any marginal decline in direct household consumption,” the FAS said.

With intensifying competition among regional rice producers — India, Vietnam and Pakistan — and Thai baht appreciation, Thailand’s rice exports are seen falling 580,000 tonnes to 7.3 million tonnes for 2025-26 and remaining at that level in 2026-27, the FAS said.

For corn, the FAS is forecasting 5.3 million tonnes of production in 2026-27, down 100,000 tonnes year on year. While farmers are expected to maintain corn planting area at 1.2 million hectares, high input cost, tighter environmental rules, and higher fertilizer and freight costs linked to the Middle East conflict will limit further area expansion, the FAS noted.

Corn consumption is projected to increase 1% to 7.3 million tonnes for 2026-27 in line with gradual growth in poultry and swine production and a continued recovery of overall food demand. The Thai Feed Mill Association (TFMA) projects total compound feed output to reach approximately 23 million tonnes in 2026, confirming a gradual upward demand trajectory.

“Feed mills reportedly plan to maintain or slightly increase corn inclusion rates in compound feeds, helped by stable domestic supply, a competitive MOC official feed‑corn purchasing price, and other policies favoring domestic corn over imported feed grains,” the FAS said.

Wheat production is marginal in Thailand due to unfavorable climate conditions, lack of seed development, and unattractive prices and returns. The FAS forecasts imports of 3.3 million tonnes in 2026-27, down from 3.5 million tonnes in 2025-26. 

Total consumption will remain stable at 3.2 million tonnes as the overall market is mature and well‑supplied and growth in demand is expected to stay modest.

Feed wheat utilization remains at about 1.8 million tonnes, reflecting ongoing substitution alongside corn, cassava and distiller’s dried grains with solubles in feed rations in response to policy constraints and cost considerations, the FAS noted.According to the Thai Feed Mill Association, feed wheat still provides some flexibility for Thai compound feed manufacturers during brief periods of domestic corn tightness or when overseas prices are attractive, particularly for Australian feed wheat.

Published Date: April 3, 2026