By Carah Hart 

The USDA is expecting fewer rice acres in the United States this year, including a sharp decline in Arkansas, the nation’s top rice producing state.

“Low prices are doing their job of curing low prices.”

Jamie Wilkerson, a market analyst with RCM Ag Services, tells Brownfield higher input costs and lower commodity prices are pushing farmers to cut back, which could ultimately support the market.

“The supply and demand numbers should basically get to a point where they reset. And we, hopefully, can wash out a lot of the old crop, excess stocks and get back where we need to be.”

In the Prospective Plantings report, the USDA says U.S. rice acres are forecast at 2.3 million acres, falling 18 percent on the year. In Arkansas, long rice was forecast at 900,000 acres.

Wilkerson says the number came in higher than he expected.

“I was expecting 750,000 to 800,000 acres, which, it could end up coming in that low if we have any prevent plant or other problems.”

He says the cost of fertilizer will be the biggest factor as to any rice acreage adjustments during the upcoming growing season.

Wilkerson says the markets had largely priced in the acreage drop, but rice could see a delayed reaction as the growing season unfolds.

Published Date: April 2, 2026