By Nileena Sunil

President Donald Trump is making threats against India again, this time over rice. Trump has warned that more tariffs could be imposed on Indian rice, saying that India should not be “dumping” its rice into America.

In 2025, the U.S. under Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs on Indian exports, marking a sharp escalation in trade policy against New Delhi. The measures began with a “reciprocal” tariff announced in April, originally set at 26%, later formalized as a 25% tariff by mid‑year. Then, in August, the U.S. added a further 25% “penalty” tariff — linked to India’s continued imports of Russian oil — effectively doubling the duty burden and bringing tariffs on many Indian goods entering the U.S. up to 50%, according to media reports.

Trump’s comments came during a White House roundtable discussion convened with farming sector representatives and cabinet officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, where Trump asked Bessent about India’s trade practices, specifically questioning, “India, tell me about India. Why is India allowed to do that? They have to pay tariffs. Do they have an exemption on rice?” The response confirmed “No sir, we’re still working on their trade deal.”

Trump replied: “But they shouldn’t be dumping. I mean, I heard that. I heard that from others. They can’t do that.” This led to discussion about an ongoing World Trade Organization (WTO) case against India.

“The Indian rice export industry is resilient and globally competitive,” said Dev Garg, vice president, Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF). “While the U.S. is an important destination, India’s rice exports are well-diversified across global markets. The Federation, in close coordination with the Government of India, continues to deepen existing trade partnerships and open new markets for Indian rice.”

“During the financial year 2024–2025, India exported Basmati rice worth $337.10 million to the United States, amounting to 274,213.14 metric tonnes (MT). This places the U.S. as the 4th largest market for Indian Basmati rice. In the same period, India exported non-Basmati rice valued at $54.64 million, totalling 61,341.54 MT, making the U.S. the 24th largest market for Indian non-Basmati rice,” says IREF.

Trade measures, whether implemented or merely threatened, have the potential to influence export competitiveness, market access, and supply chains.

“Evidence from retail markets indicates that most of the tariff burden has been passed on to U.S. consumers, as reflected in higher retail pack prices, while export realizations for Indian farmers and exporters have remained broadly stable,” IREF said.

For exporters, navigating changing trade policies requires strategic planning, risk management, and close coordination with government authorities and trade associations. At the same time, consumer markets in importing countries may experience indirect effects, including price adjustments and supply fluctuations, reflecting the broader consequences of tariff decisions, which are not yet fully measurable.

Maintaining adaptability and responsiveness is essential for exporters, governments, and stakeholders alike to preserve market stability and protect economic interests, though the exact outcomes remain unpredictable. In the longer term, these developments may also encourage countries to diversify trade partnerships, strengthen domestic industries, and engage proactively in international trade negotiations.

Published Date: December 11, 2025