A report from the Foreign Agricultural Service states that Japanese feed millers are opting for more corn in their rations due to persistently high rice prices.

The FAS forecasts higher corn imports in the 2025-26 marketing year, supported by softening corn prices. Incoming corn shipments are projected to increase by 2.2% over the previous year to 15.8 million tonnes, the highest level in six years.

“Japan’s rice market has faced considerable disruption following the summer 2024 shortage, which led to a sharp and persistent increase in prices through 2025,” the FAS said. “These sustained high prices have prompted farmers to expand production and led retailers and the foodservice industry to increase rice imports beyond the volumes allotted in the state-traded system. Strong demand for affordable rice drove private imports up to 88,706 tonnes during the first 11 months of MY 2024-25, representing 14% of the total imports.”

In contrast, higher domestic rice production is expected to reduce rice imports in 2025-26. Based on data from Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), the FAS estimates a strong rice harvest for 2025-26, driven by increased harvested area and higher yields.

Table rice production is forecast to rise by 10%, reaching 6.8 million tonnes, while rice production for feed use is expected to decline by half to 240,000 tonnes, the FAS said.

The FAS estimated 2024-25 rice consumption at 8.1 million tonnes, down 1.8% from its 2023-24 estimate. While table rice consumption remains relatively steady, overall rice consumption is declining, driven by a 30% decrease in feed rice consumption in the first 10 months of the current marketing year.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

Published Date: December 9, 2025