Jasper Emmanuel Arcalas – The Philippine Star

MANILA, Philippines — Rice imports may hit over four million metric tons this year despite the projected record-high palay harvest as local output remains insufficient to meet the country’s growing demand for the staple.

In its latest estimates, the Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev) projected that rice imports this year may hit 4.37 million MT as the country’s rice production would be 17 percent short of total demand.

The latest rice import volume forecast is more than a quarter higher than the department’s earlier estimate of 3.45 million MT. The upward revision was caused by higher-than-anticipated import arrivals in the first half.

Nonetheless, the new total rice import projection this year is still lower than last year’s import volume of 4.8 million MT.

Total rice production this year could reach 12.89 million MT, based on DEPDev’s projections. The volume is three percent higher than the 12.48 million MT recorded last year.

The DEPDev based its computations on the actual first quarter harvest as well as first half import arrivals.

It used the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) palay production projections for the second quarter until the fourth quarter since the calculations were made before the release of the official second quarter figures.

DEPDev estimated that total rice demand this year would be 15.54 million MT.

Total supply, which includes the beginning stocks for the year, is projected to be at nearly 19.55 million MT, resulting in an ending inventory of 3.92 million MT, which is enough to last for more than three months.

DEPDev figures showed that rice imports in the third quarter may hit 838,000 MT and 1.16 million MT in the fourth quarter.

“Imports are crucial to ensure sufficient supply for the whole year,” DEPDev said.

The country’s rice imports in the first half rose by four percent on an annual basis to almost 2.38 million MT from 2.28 million MT, based on Bureau of Customs data.

The DA earlier said it is optimistic that total palay harvest this year would surpass 20.46 million MT following a record first half production, driven by better weather conditions and sustained state support.

Palay harvest from January to June reached 9.08 million MT, about six percent higher than the 8.53 million MT output in the same period last year, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

The latest palay production figure is the highest first half output ever recorded, PSA data showed.

Published Date: August 4, 2025