Yoshifumi Fukuzawa.

Japan’s rice shortage lays bare a deeper truth: when wrongdoing goes unchallenged, those in power are protected while ordinary people pay the price.

Recently, rice, the staple food of the Japanese people, disappeared from the shelves of Japanese grocery stores and supermarkets. Many people, as well as restaurants, were in trouble because they could not buy rice even if they wanted to. In an attempt to contain the outbreak, the government finally released a blend of rice from its stockpiles from various regions of the country. However, it is still unclear whether a stable supply at a low price can be maintained.

Some media outlets blamed this situation on rice hoarders and attempted to track them down. During the so-called First Oil Crisis, the price of crude oil soared following the October 1973 war in the Middle East and plunged the world economy into turmoil. Many consumers in Japan hoarded goods such as toilet paper and detergent at the time, although they had little to do with the price of crude oil. In recent years, mask hoarders appeared during the COVID-19 pandemic. Even Chinese hoarders bought up the masks in Japan. 

However, it appears that the current rice shortage is not the fault of hoarders. According to experts and former employees of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), the rice shortage is probably the result of a policy error by the Japanese government and MAFF. Unfortunately, Japanese bureaucrats are reluctant to admit their predecessors’ policy mistakes unless they have a good reason to do so.

Subsidies, Surpluses, and Struggles

The productivity of Japanese farmers is very low, especially that of rice-producing farmers. According to MAFF’s statistics on agricultural management, the annual income per rice farmer in 2023, minus expenses, was ¥97,000 JPY ($681 USD) per business unit, or ¥97 ($0.68) per hour.

Rice prices have been managed by the government under the food control system. However, in the past, there was a surplus of rice. The price sold on the market was then lower than the price at which the government purchased rice from farmers. Therefore, in 1970, the government implemented a policy to reduce rice acreage and limit rice production. Its purpose was to adjust rice production. 

More specifically, the government encouraged farmers to shift their crops from rice production to feed rice, wheat, and soybeans. In exchange, they received subsidies. By doing so, the government sought to stabilize rice prices while reducing rice production. 

Both the subsidy for reducing rice acreage and the purchase of stockpiled rice were originally funded by taxpayers. Moreover, it is the consumers who have been forced to buy overpriced rice.

This policy of rice reduction was abolished in 2018. After that, rice farmers were supposed to be free to produce rice without government guidance. However, the government’s subsidies for shifting crops were expanded, and production was actually adjusted. This led to a steady decline in rice production. Then came the rice shortage, for which the government was not even adequately prepared.

Feeding the Bureaucracy

Furthermore, the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) Group is involved. Farmers deposit their income and income from the conversion of farmland to residential land into deposits with JA. These are then managed by the Norinchukin Bank, a JA Group member. Furthermore, profits from the investment are returned to JA. If the reduction in acreage had continued and farmers had stayed out of agriculture, the amount of deposits would have decreased. 

The JA Group is one of the main posts to which MAFF sends senior bureaucrats after they retire. If deposits were to decline and the JA Group’s operations were downsized, this would reduce the number of posts for senior MAFF officials after their retirement. Therefore, the government decided to encourage farmers to switch from rice cultivation to other crops. It supports keeping farming jobs by providing subsidies for rice crop diversification.

Amakudari

Japan has a practice of sending senior bureaucrats to new occupations after retirement. This system is known as amakudari in Japanese, which literally means “descent from heaven.” Under this system, top bureaucrats are often offered high-level positions after retirement, such as chairman or president of private companies. Others take up positions such as the heads of independent administrative corporations, special corporations, and so on. 

They, of course, receive severance pay when they leave government offices. Additionally, they receive severance pay when they leave their post-retirement positions in the future. Some of them “descend from heaven” multiple times, accumulating a small fortune along the way.

Amakudari is not limited to MAFF, but is also common among other ministries in Japan. Some bureaucrats have made a fortune by repeating this practice. The Norinchukin Bank is also a tasty destination for MAFF bureaucrats after their retirement. The Bank posted huge losses on foreign bond investments, and as a result, is expected to post a loss of nearly ¥2 trillion ($14 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. The supervising ministry for the Norinchukin Bank is not the Financial Services Agency but MAFF.

Stranger than Nonfiction

A recent best-selling nonfiction book, Tsushima no Umi ni Shizumu (Sinking in the Sea of Tsushima), by Shinnosuke Kubota, pursues a case involving JA. The book tells the story of the suicide of a JA sales representative in the small fishing village of Tsushima, the closest island to South Korea in Nagasaki Prefecture. This event led to the discovery of sloppy management practices throughout JA.

Although this sales representative had been one of the top performers in the nation in all aspects of his business, including purchasing and financial services, his success was actually due to fraud. However, customers, their families, JA employees, and executives had benefited from the fraud. As a result, for so many years, it was difficult to bring charges against him.

The Politics of Looking Away

In Japan, it is common for people to take no notice of the benefits they are receiving, even though they know it is wrong. Recently, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba found himself in a tight spot when it was alleged that he distributed gift certificates to first-year members of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). 

It seems that this is not something that Prime Minister Ishiba started. Some say that successive prime ministers have done the same thing. In fact, a former member of the House of Representatives who was elected in the same year as Prime Minister Ishiba testified that he received gift certificates from the then-prime minister. However, former prime ministers and many Diet members remain silent.

There are many cases in this country where, even when people think something is wrong. Often, they keep quiet because many of those involved are benefiting from the situation. Even politicians have a hard time disagreeing with their elders. This is evident in the case of PM Ishiba, who was vocal about his opposition to the government but has since become silent after being elected prime minister. 

Similarly, bureaucrats, especially career bureaucrats, cannot deny the decisions and actions of their predecessors. If they did, they would not be able to reach better posts after their retirement. Even if one thinks something is wrong, they are so entrenched in the structure that no one can take the initiative to correct the wrongs in society in Japan today. The current rice shortage is a perfect example of this.

Published Date: April 22, 2025