by Lucas Ajanaku

Nigeria has emerged as a leader in local rice production in Africa, beating countries such as Madagascar, Egypt, Tanzania, Guinea, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire and others.

With 8.7million tons, the country had the highest volumes of production last year while  Madagascar and Egypt followed with five million tons production respectively totaling  a combined 45per cent share of the continent’s total production.

According to IndexBox’s new report entitled: Africa – Rice – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights, Tanzania, Guinea, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Senegal and Sierra Leone lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40per cent.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, among the leading producing countries, was attained by Senegal (with a CAGR of +11.6per cent), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth, InderBox noted.

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption last year were Nigeria (8.7million tons), Madagascar (5.6million tons) and Egypt (5.1million tons), together comprising 34per cent of total consumption.

Guinea, Tanzania, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Senegal, Benin and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37per cent.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Democratic Republic of the Congo (with a CAGR of +7.7per cent), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Nigeria led the market at $10.5billion alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Madagascar ($3.9billion). It was followed by Egypt. From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Nigeria was relatively modest.

The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Madagascar (+2.4per cent per year) and Egypt (-2.3per cent per year). The countries with the highest levels of rice per capita consumption in 2024 were Guinea (290 kg per person), Madagascar (181 kg per person) and Benin (161 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, among the key consuming countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo (with a CAGR of +4.3per cent), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In its market forecast, the report noted that driven by increasing demand for rice in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +1.3per cent for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 66million tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8per cent for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $42billion (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

On consumption, it noted that after three years of growth, consumption of rice decreased by -0.8 per cent to 57million tons last year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6per cent over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period.

The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 7.5per cent compared to the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption attained the maximum volume at 58million tons in 2023, and then fell slightly in the following year.

The value of the rice market in Africa was estimated at $34.7billion last year, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5per cent over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the market value increased by 8.6 per cent. The level of consumption peaked at $34.8billion in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

After six years of growth, production of rice decreased by -3per cent to 41million tons last year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1per cent from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 6.7per cent against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at 43million tons in 2023, and then dropped in the following year.

The general positive trend in terms of output was largely conditioned by a temperate expansion of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures. In value terms, rice production reduced modestly to $26.2billion in 2024 estimated in export price.

The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2per cent from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the production volume increased by 8.7per cent against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $26.6billion in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Last year, the average yield of rice in Africa totaled 2.3 tons per ha, remaining constant against the previous year. Overall, the yield, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 6.7per cent against the previous year. Over the period under review, the rice yield reached the maximum level at 2.4 tons per ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

During the period under review, approximately 18million ha of rice were harvested in Africa; declining by -3.3per cent against 2023. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.2per cent over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 7.1per cent. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of 18M ha, and then declined modestly in the following year.

During the period, approximately 17million tons of rice were imported in Africa; picking up by 5.1per cent on the previous year’s figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5per cent over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 29per cent. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at 18million tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, rice imports rose notably to $7.6billion in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9per cent from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 30per cent against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $7.7billion in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The countries with the highest levels of rice imports in 2024 were Benin (1.7million tons), Cote d’Ivoire (1.6million tons), Senegal (1.5million tons), South Africa (1.1million tons), Burkina Faso (one million tons), Guinea (0.9million tons), Kenya (0.9million tons), Cameroon (0.7million tons) and Ethiopia (0.7million tons), together resulting at 58per cent of total import.

Ghana (577,000 tons) took a minor share of total imports. From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Ethiopia (with a CAGR of +14.1per cent), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. In value terms, Benin ($757million), South Africa ($646million) and Cote d’Ivoire ($616million) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, together comprising 27per cent of total imports.

Senegal, Kenya, Ethiopia, Guinea, Ghana, Cameroon and Burkina Faso lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31per cent. In terms of the main importing countries, Ethiopia, with a CAGR of +12.8per cent, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth, the InderBox report noted.

Published Date: April 15, 2025