{"id":8207,"date":"2023-09-19T18:24:59","date_gmt":"2023-09-19T18:24:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ricenewstoday.com\/dev\/?p=8207"},"modified":"2023-09-19T18:25:00","modified_gmt":"2023-09-19T18:25:00","slug":"commentary-rice-export-bans-and-price-caps-are-a-food-crisis-risk-for-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ricenewstoday.com\/dev\/commentary-rice-export-bans-and-price-caps-are-a-food-crisis-risk-for-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"Commentary: Rice export bans and price caps are a food crisis risk for Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Rice prices have risen since India restricted exports, leading some importing countries to cap domestic prices of rice. It\u2019s an explosive cocktail, says Javier Blas for Bloomberg Opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A man checks rice at a store in Quezon city, Philippines, on Aug 14, 2023. Countries worldwide are scrambling to secure rice after a partial ban on exports by India cut supplies by roughly a fifth. (AP Photo\/Aaron Favila)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LONDON: It\u2019s a diagram that Economics 101 students learn by heart. It puts together supply, demand and prices in a single chart. The graph\u00a0is\u00a0the stuff that makes markets tick, whether\u00a0for iPhones or\u00a0bowls of rice.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As an associate professor at the School of Economics at the University of the Philippines, prior to her move into government, Cielo Magno imprinted the supply-and-demand chart on her students\u2019 minds. Typically, supply slopes upward: When prices rise, suppliers are willing to produce more; demand generally slopes downward: At higher prices, consumers buy less. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then Magno became her country\u2019s finance undersecretary, building a reputation for speaking her mind. On Sep 1, she posted a common version of the diagram on social media: \u201cI miss teaching \u2026,\u201d she added. Soon after, she was fired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though Magno didn\u2019t explicitly say it then, through her post, she was questioning the government\u2019s decision to introduce a price cap for rice. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the supply-demand diagram is Economics 101, then price caps are Government 101, distorting how markets are supposed to work. And rice is right now the target of many.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sadly,\u00a0Magno\u2019s\u00a0travails in the Philippines aren\u2019t an exception. Across Asia, nations\u00a0are trying to bend\u00a0supply and demand curves, attempting to control the cereal grain\u2019s\u00a0prices.\u00a0Carelessly,\u00a0they are\u00a0sowing the seeds\u00a0of a potential food crisis.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EXPORT BANS, PRICE CAPS HURT<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Global rice prices have risen to a 12-year high above US$600 a metric tonne since India, the world\u2019s largest rice exporter, embarked on a beggar-thy-neighbour policy of reducing overseas sales. As a response, importers like the Philippines are doing the opposite, capping prices, in effect boosting demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just imagine what happens to global wholesale prices when big exporters reduce supply just as large importers try to cap domestic prices. It\u2019s an explosive cocktail, with international prices the only relief valve. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The price rally matters because rice is the staple diet for half the world, including about 1 billion undernourished people living in Asia and Africa. While most pundits focus on wheat, corn and soybeans, all heavily traded in the futures market in Chicago, for food security, rice\u2019s physical transactions matter more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Important as it is, very little rice trades between borders, with most of it consumed domestically. As such, small changes in exports and imports, and production and supply, have an outsize impact on world prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While global rice production in the last crop season was\u00a0513 million tonnes, global trade totalled just 10 per cent\u00a0of that amount. By contrast, more than 25 per cent of\u00a0wheat\u00a0and 40 per cent of\u00a0soybean output are traded, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ASIA\u2019S RICE PROBLEM<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Asia is struggling with a real problem: Rice harvests haven\u2019t\u00a0been as abundant as expected, largely due to droughts linked to the\u00a0El Nino weather phenomenon. And the next crop season\u00a0isn\u2019t looking any better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In theory, global rice stockpiles are more than sufficient to bridge any crop shortfall. At the end of the current 2022 to 2023 season, they are expected to stand at 173.8 million metric tonnes, more than double the 82 million over the 2007 to mid-2008 period, when rice prices last surged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem is who holds those inventories:\u00a0China\u00a0and India control, together, just over 80 per cent. And neither is selling much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All this began\u00a0in July, when India announced a ban on exports of non-premium-quality rice and has since imposed further restrictions encompassing most of its overseas sales. True, New Delhi\u00a0allows exports in ad hoc government-to-government deals, but those are cumbersome\u00a0and far more arbitrary than previous commercial\u00a0deals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On paper, India has enough rice for itself and for export – but facing elections next year, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi isn\u2019t taking any chances with food inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In turn, importing countries panicked, introducing their own measures. And even the countries that didn\u2019t impose formal restrictions saw their own problems as traders hoarded, fearing higher prices later. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The result: The beginning of a price panic that supply-and-demand analysis suggests\u00a0is\u00a0unneeded. True, the physical rice market is tighter than expected, but if regional governments were working together to avoid a crisis, one wouldn\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DEMAND FOR RICE RISING FAST<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sadly, the lessons of the 2007 to 2008 rice price spike, when the grain\u2019s cost more than tripled in a few weeks to above US$1,000 a tonne, haven\u2019t been heeded. Then export bans, price caps and hoarding made a difficult situation a tragedy. Asia risks the same result now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asian nations understandably need to protect their vulnerable populations from sharp increases in food costs, but they have more nuanced tools available than widespread export restrictions and one-size-fits-all price caps. Targeted support, including via strong welfare safety nets, works better – and it\u2019s far cheaper.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current trouble highlights the need to support more rice production. The good news is that Asian governments have learned several lessons from the 2007 to 2008 food crisis and stepped up help to their farmers, with production since then posting records almost every year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even in 2023, despite El Nino-linked droughts, output is expected to reach an all-time high. The bad news is that demand is rising even faster, boosted by booming population growth and a decline in extreme poverty in corners of Asia and Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To keep up, governments need even more production. That\u2019s tricky in an era of climate change when the world is trying to reduce its use of fertilisers and water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One option is further investment in better seeds, including genetically modified ones. For years, China opposed genetically modified organisms; now it\u2019s opening the door, starting with corn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another alternative is to improve farming infrastructure, including silos, to avoid crop losses after harvest. In the latter area, regional development banks could do much more to channel money. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than trying to bend the supply-and-demand diagrams, Asia needs to embrace the curve, letting free markets work. Magno is back to teaching, this time a course about public economics. We can only hope some officials drop by her class. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rice prices have risen since India restricted exports, leading some importing countries to cap domestic prices of rice. It\u2019s an explosive cocktail, says Javier Blas for Bloomberg Opinion. A man checks rice at a store in Quezon city, Philippines, on Aug 14, 2023. 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