{"id":8008,"date":"2023-09-13T10:44:36","date_gmt":"2023-09-13T10:44:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ricenewstoday.com\/dev\/?p=8008"},"modified":"2023-09-13T10:46:30","modified_gmt":"2023-09-13T10:46:30","slug":"rice-price-spike-offers-preview-of-climate-food-disruption","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ricenewstoday.com\/dev\/rice-price-spike-offers-preview-of-climate-food-disruption\/","title":{"rendered":"Rice price spike offers preview of climate food disruption"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

India, which accounts for 40% of global rice exports, has banned the overseas sale of non-basmati rice<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 15-year high in rice prices, prompted by top exporter India’s restrictions on overseas sales, should be a wake-up call on how climate change can disrupt food supplies, experts say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rice prices jumped 9.8% in August, bucking decreases in other staples, the Food and Agriculture Organization said last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That followed the July decision by India, which accounts for 40% of global rice exports, to ban the overseas sale of non-basmati rice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government cited soaring domestic prices for the staple, caused by geopolitics, the El Nino weather pattern and “extreme climatic conditions.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year is expected to be the hottest in human history, and the impacts of the seasonal El Nino weather pattern could make conditions even harsher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite severe flooding in parts of northern India, this August was the country’s hottest and driest on record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The monsoon season that brings up to 80% of the country’s annual rain has been far below normal levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India’s July restrictions followed a decision last September to ban exports of another variety of rice that is a staple in parts of Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Up to 8% of global rice exports for 2023\/24 could now be taken out of the market, according to analysis by BMI, Fitch Group’s research arm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, the crisis offers an opportunity for India’s rivals, including number two and three exporters, Thailand and Vietnam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both have increased exports this year, with Nguyen Nhu Cuong, an official with Vietnam’s agriculture and rural development ministry, touting a “bumper crop” and plans to increase planting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the dry conditions that tend to accompany El Nino mean smooth sailing ahead is unlikely, warned Elyssa Kaur Ludher, from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Climate Change in Southeast Asia programme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“My question is whether they can continue to do this once El Nino comes into force towards the end of this year, when water becomes more scarce,” she told AFP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“I think the end of this year and especially the beginning of next year will be very, very tough,” she added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A naturally occurring weather phenomenon, El Nino typically lasts nine to 12 months and is expected to strengthen late this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even before India’s latest restrictions, its effects were boosting rice export prices, according to BMI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Thailand, national rainfall levels are currently 18% lower than expected for the time of year, the Office of National Water Resources said this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Late rains could still make up the difference, but the agency said it is “concerned about a drought caused by El Nino.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consequence is one of price rather than supply, said Charles Hart, agricultural commodities analyst at Fitch Solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“This is not a running out of rice moment,” he stressed, noting India’s restrictions have not been followed by other exporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, the situation is likely to force the drawdown of stocks rebuilt after pandemic-era depletions, and prompt importers to seek new deals and impose local limits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top importer the Philippines this month signed a deal with Vietnam to help stabilise supply, days after announcing a national price cap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For some though, unaffordable prices amount to the same as a lack of supply: less food.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“It’s not just a food availability issue, but it’s also a social stability issue, it’s a political issue,” said Ludher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current disruptions should be a wake-up call for policy-makers, she added, with more attention needed to the plight of farmers across various sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate change can affect productivity, with lower crop yields as temperatures rise, but also increases the likelihood of extreme events like the 2022 Pakistan floods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Global grain export markets are relatively concentrated, so that kind of extreme weather risk accumulates in a few markets,” Hart added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In India, policymakers need to develop better early-warning systems and new planting patterns, said Avantika Goswami, a climate change researcher at the Centre for Science and Environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Erratic weather patterns are the new normal,” she told AFP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Now, it’s a case of early adaptation. In the long-term, global emissions have to come down,” she cautioned.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

India, which accounts for 40% of global rice exports, has banned the overseas sale of non-basmati rice A 15-year high in rice prices, prompted by top exporter India’s restrictions on overseas sales, should be a wake-up call on how climate change can disrupt food supplies, experts say. Rice prices jumped 9.8% in August, bucking decreases […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8009,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[176],"tags":[167,159],"class_list":["post-8008","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-indian-rice","tag-global-rice-news"],"acf":{"enable_premium_overlay":false},"yoast_head":"\nRice price spike offers preview of climate food disruption - Rice News Today<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rice price spike offers preview of climate food disruption - Rice News Today\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"India, which accounts for 40% of global rice exports, has banned the overseas sale of non-basmati rice A 15-year high in rice prices, prompted by top exporter India’s restrictions on overseas sales, should be a wake-up call on how climate change can disrupt food supplies, experts say. 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