{"id":6129,"date":"2023-04-20T07:33:34","date_gmt":"2023-04-20T07:33:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ricenewstoday.com\/dev\/?p=6129"},"modified":"2023-08-01T07:33:45","modified_gmt":"2023-08-01T07:33:45","slug":"global-rice-shortage-is-set-to-be-the-biggest-in-20-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ricenewstoday.com\/dev\/global-rice-shortage-is-set-to-be-the-biggest-in-20-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Global rice shortage is set to be the biggest in 20 years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a>
Bowl of white rice at Bamboo Sushi restaurant in San Ramon, California, January 23, 2022.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From China to the U.S. to the European Union, rice production is falling and driving up prices for more than 3.5 billion people across the globe, particularly in Asia-Pacific \u2013 which consumes 90% of the world\u2019s rice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023, according to Fitch Solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And a deficit of this magnitude for one of the world\u2019s most cultivated grains will hurt major importers, analysts told CNBC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAt the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices,\u201d Fitch Solutions\u2019 commodities analyst Charles Hart said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rice prices are expected to remain notched around current highs until 2024, stated a report by Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research dated April 4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The price of rice averaged $17.30 per cwt through 2023 year-to-date, and will only ease to $14.50 per cwt in 2024, according to the report. Cwt is a unit of measurement for certain commodities such as rice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given that rice is the staple food commodity across multiple markets in Asia, prices are a major determinant of food price inflation and food security, particularly for the poorest households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGiven that rice is the staple food commodity across multiple markets in Asia, prices are a major determinant of food price inflation and food security, particularly for the poorest households,\u201d Hart said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The global shortfall for 2022\/2023 would come in at 8.7 million tonnes, the report forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That would mark the largest global rice deficit since 2003\/2004, when the global rice markets generated a deficit of 18.6 million tonnes, said Hart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strained rice supplies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a short supply of rice as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, as well as bad weather in rice-producing economies like China and Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the second half of last year, swaths of farmland in the world\u2019s largest rice producer China were plagued by heavy summer monsoon rains and floods. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The accumulated rainfall in the country\u2019s Guangxi and Guangdong province, China\u2019s major hubs of rice production, was the second highest in at least 20 years, according to agriculture analytics company Gro Intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, Pakistan \u2014 which represents 7.6% of global rice trade \u2014 saw annual production plunge 31% year-on-year due to severe flooding last year, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), labeling the impact as \u201ceven worse than initially expected.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"HANGZHOU,<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Workers cultivate rice seedlings at an agricultural service station in Hangzhou in east China\u2019s Zhejiang province Sunday, April 16, 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shortfall is partly due to result of \u201can annual deterioration in the Mainland Chinese harvest caused by intense heat and drought as well as the impact of severe flooding in Pakistan,\u201d Hart pointed out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rice is a vulnerable crop, and has the highest probability of simultaneous crop loss during an El Nino event, according to a scientific study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to tighter supply challenges, rice became an increasingly attractive alternative following the surge in price of other major grains since Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Hart added. The resulting rice substitution has driven up demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whose rice bowls will be affected?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Lower year-on-year rice production in other countries like the U.S. and EU have also contributed to the deficit, said Oscar Tjakra, senior analyst at global food and agriculture bank Rabobank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe global rice production deficit situation will increase the cost of importing rice for major rice importers such as Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and African countries in 2023,\u201d said Tjakra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many countries will also be forced to draw down their domestic stockpiles, said Kelly Goughary, senior research analyst at Gro Intelligence. She said countries most affected by the deficit would be those already suffering from high domestic food price inflation such as Pakistan, Turkey, Syria and some African countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is the largest rice and wheat producer in the world and is currently experiencing the highest level of drought in its rice growing regions in over two decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kelly Goughary<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST, GRO INTELLIGENCE<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe global rice export market, which is typically tighter than that of the other major grains … has been affected by India\u2019s export restriction,\u201d said Fitch Solutions\u2019 Hart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India banned exports of broken rice in September, a move Hart said has been a \u201cmajor price driver\u201d for rice. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surplus in the horizon<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the shortage may soon be a thing of the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fitch Solutions estimates that the global rice market will return to \u201can almost balanced position in 2023\/24.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That could lead to rice futures falling in year-on-year terms to below their 2022 level, but remain elevated at \u201cmore than one third above their pre-Covid (2015-2019) mean value, in part as inventories are replenished after a period of extensive drawdown.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe believe that the rice market will return to surplus in 2024\/25 and then continue to loosen through the medium term.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fitch further projects that the prices of rice could drop almost 10% to $15.50 per hundredweight in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is our view that global rice production will stage a solid rebound in 2023\/24, expecting total output to rise by 2.5% year on year,\u201d Fitch\u2019s report forecast, hinging on India being a \u201cprincipal engine\u201d of global rice output over the next five years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A combine harvester cuts through a field during a wheat harvest at a farm in Karnal, Haryana, India, on Thursday, April 13, 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anindito Mukherjee | Bloomberg | Getty Images<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, rice production remains at the mercy of weather conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While India\u2019s Meteorological Department expects the country to receive \u201cnormal\u201d monsoon rainfall, forecasts for intense heat and heat waves through the second and third quarters of 2023 continue to pose a threat to India\u2019s wheat harvest, the report cautioned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other countries may not be spared either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina is the largest rice and wheat producer in the world and is currently experiencing the highest level of drought in its rice growing regions in over two decades,\u201d said Goughary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major European rice-growing countries like France, Germany and the UK have also been afflicted with the highest level of drought in 20 years, she added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From China to the U.S. to the European Union, rice production is falling and driving up prices for more than 3.5 billion people across the globe, particularly in Asia-Pacific \u2013 which consumes 90% of the world\u2019s rice. The global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023, according to Fitch […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6130,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[176],"tags":[159],"class_list":["post-6129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-global-rice-news"],"acf":{"enable_premium_overlay":false},"yoast_head":"\nGlobal rice shortage is set to be the biggest in 20 years - Rice News Today<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global rice shortage is set to be the biggest in 20 years - Rice News Today\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From China to the U.S. to the European Union, rice production is falling and driving up prices for more than 3.5 billion people across the globe, particularly in Asia-Pacific \u2013 which consumes 90% of the world\u2019s rice. 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